The Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz fixture in the final of the 2022 ATP Indian Wells will take place on Sunday, 20 March 2022, starting at 10:00 p.m. GMT. The venue is Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells.
Latest odds on betting sites
Rafael Nadal is priced with the odds of 1.25 (-400 American; 1/4 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 78%. Taylor Fritz comes with the odds of 4.60 (+360; 18/5) to win this match. The chances of her triumph are around 22%.
The latest odds for Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz (March 20):
- Over 21.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
- Under 21.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
- Asian handicap (-1.5) sets on Nadal — 1.75 (-133; 3/4)
- Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Fritz — 2.10 (+110; 11/10)
- Asian handicap (-4.5) games on Nadal — 2.10 (+110; 11/10)
- Asian handicap (+4.5) games on Fritz — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
Match preview and statistics
Rafael Nadal beat Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) in the most recent game.
Alcaraz Garfia won the first return game of the first set. Nadal had five break points in his first return game, but did not convert them. Then Rafa won four games in a row. He converted two out of three break points during these games. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won the next two games to level the score, but Nadal won the last two to finish the set.
In the second set, both tennis players traded service games to a 2-2 score and return games to a 4-4 score. Alcaraz Garfia reached a 40-15 score in the ninth game and finished the seventh break point successfully. He won the last game to level the score.
The tennis players performed outstandingly in service games to a 2-2 score of the last set. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia had three break points in the fifth game, but Nadal saved them all. Garfia won the next service game. Rafa won the last three games to finish the set with a 6-3 score in his favor.
We have seen a total of over 9.5 games in the first set in the last four matches with Rafael Nadal’s participation. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 1.85 (-117; 17/20) this time.
Taylor Fritz won over Andrey Rublev (7-5, 6-4) in the previous stage.
Taylor Fritz won the first three games of the first set. Then the tennis players traded winning service games to a 5-2 score. Andrey Rublev won the next three games to level the score, but Taylor Fritz finally finished the set in his favor with a 7-5 score. He created nine breakpoints opportunities and converted two of them.
In the second set, they were equal to a 3-4 score. The tennis players did not give each other breakpoint opportunities in these games. Taylor Fritz received the first breakpoint in the eighth game, but his rival saved it. In spite of this, the American tennis player won two remaining games to qualify for the next stage.
A total of over 2.5 goals has played out in three of the last four matches with Taylor Fritz participating. The same result is priced with the odds of 2.75 (+175; 7/4).
Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz H2H
Rafael Nadal won over Taylor Fritz (6-3, 6-2) in the final of the 2020 ATP Acapulco. He won all nine service games and three out of eight return games. Rafa won 80% of service points and 43% of return points. He received seven breakpoint opportunities and converted three of them.
Taylor Fritz did not make a double fault. He saved four out of seven break points, but did not convert a single one. Fritz won 57% of service points and 20% of return points.
Prediction and betting tips
Rafael Nadal is much stronger than his rivals in the 2022 ATP Indian Wells. He has a streak of 21 matches won and three tournaments won. Rafa absolutely dominated in the last head-to-head fixture against Taylor Fritz. However, the American tennis player is in good form too. He won over Andrey Rublev to nil in the previous stage and has won in 12 of the last 15 matches. I believe that Taylor will be able to win a set, but Rafa will finally finish the match in his favor. Also, a total of over 21.5 games looks safe too. This outcome has played out in four of the last five matches with Rafael Nadal participating.
Betting prediction: Rafael Nadal to win (2-1)
Odds: 4.00 (+300 American; 3/1 Fractional)
Betting prediction: Over 21.5 games
Odds: 1.95 (-105 American; 19/20 Fractional)