The Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev fixture in the finals of the 2022 Australian Open will take place on Sunday, 30 January 2022, starting at 8:30 a.m. GMT. The venue is Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne.
Latest odds on betting sites
Rafael Nadal is priced with the odds of 2.75 (+175 American; 7/4 Fractional) to win the tournament, which equals an approximate probability of 37%. Daniil Medvedev comes with the odds of 1.50 (-200; 1/2) to win this match. The chances of his triumph are around 63%.
The latest odds for Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev (January 30):
- Over 40.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
- Under 40.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
- Asian handicap (-1.5) sets on Medvedev — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)
- Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Nadal — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
- Asian handicap (-3.5) games on Medvedev — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
- Asian handicap (+3.5) games on Nadal — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)
Match preview and stats
Rafael Nadal beat Matteo Berrettini (6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3) in the semi-final of the 2022 Australian Open.
Nadal won the first three games in the first set against Berrettini, converting the first breakpoint in the second game. The Spanish tennis player went on to win the set 6-3 and did not give Berrettini breakpoint opportunities in this set.
In the first game of the second set, Nadal converted the first breakpoint. He had three breakpoints more in the second return game and converted the last one. Then Nadal won one more service game to win the first four games in this set. Then tennis players traded winning service games to finish the second set with a 6-2 score in favor of Rafa.
At the start of the third set, both tennis performed flawlessly and did not give each other breakpoints to a 3-3 score. Then Berrettini won the last three games to finish the set in his favor. He made a 40-0 score in the eighth game and converted the second breakpoint.
The last set started equally. Nadal and Berrettini did not give each other breakpoint opportunities to a 3-3 score again. However, the Spaniard got two breakpoints in the fourth return game and converted the second one. Also, he did not make a double fault in the set and managed to win with a 6-3 score line.
Rafael Nadal has won the first set in three out of four H2H matches against Daniil Medvedev. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 2.20 (+120; 6/5) this time.
Daniil Medvedev kicked Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1) out of the 2022 Australian Open in the semi-finals.
Medvedev and Tsitsipas performed outstandingly in the first set. They did not make double faults and did not give each other breakpoints to a 4-4 score. Daniil Medvedev reached a 40-0 score in the ninth game, but Tsitsipas saved all breakpoints to finish the game in his favor. Despite this, Medvedev performed a bit better in tie-breaks and won the first set.
Stefanos Tsitsipas easily won the first game of the second set. We did not see breakpoints to a 3-2 score. Medvedev converted the fourth breakpoint in the sixth game to level the score and even got one in his favor, but then the Greek won three remaining games.
Tsitsipas made a 40-15 score in the first game of the third set, but did not convert two breakpoints. Then both did not give each other breakpoint opportunities before the last game, where Medvedev reached a 40-0 score and converted the second breakpoint.
Both tennis players traded winning first service games in the last set. Then Medvedev literally crushed his opponent by winning five games in a row to qualify for the Australian Open final. He did not give his rival breakpoints and converted 100% of his.
A total of over 12.5 games in the first set has played out in four out of six matches in the 2022 Australian Open with Medvedev participating. This total is priced with the odds of 3.60 (+260; 13/5) in this final.
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev H2H
Daniil Medvedev destroyed Rafael Nadal (3-6, 7-6, 6-3) in the 2020 ATP Torino finals. He won 11 out of 14 service games and 68% of service points. Medvedev won 25% and 42% of return games and points, respectively. He converted four out of 11 breakpoints and saved 25% of them.
Nadal made three double faults in three sets. He converted three out of four breakpoints and converted 64% of them. Rafa won 75% of service games and 21% of return games. He received 58% out of 117 service points and 32% of return points.
Betting tips and prediction
Nadal and Medvedev have performed approximately equal at the 2022 Australian Open as well as their rivals. They played equally in the most recent head-to-head fixture, despite Medvedev’s victory. Rafa has a streak of 10 victories, whereas Daniil’s one is of nine wins.
It is important to say that Daniil Medvedev has already met Rafa once in the Grand Slam final. The Russian was seeded second, whereas Nadal had the fifth seed at the 2019 US Open, while we see opposite seeds now. The Spaniard won that fixture with a 3-2 score.
I believe that we will see a total of over 3.5 sets this time too: both tennis players have played incredibly in this tournament and are in great form. Daniil has insanely progressed during the last two years and has a great chance of winning.
A total of over 10.5 sets in the first set looks safe too. Both Nadal and Medvedev performed perfectly in the first set at this tournament, and the same outcome has played out in four out of six matches at the 2022 Australian Open with Medvedev participating.
Betting prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win & over 3.5 sets
Odds: 2.25 (+125 American; 5/4 Fractional)
Betting prediction: Over 10.5 games (1st set)
Odds: 2.50 (+150 American; 3/2 Fractional)